COVID-19 Epidemic

Final Paper Assignment
Write a 2-5 page paper based on the COVID-19 epidemic model we discussed in class using the format of the “Paper Template” document in this folder. Modify the parameters within the model to explain the potential effects of actions that we may take as a society on the severity of the epidemic. You may use the original article as a reference, but you should research and incorporate four more primary research articles into your paper. Below is a description of what is expected for each section of the paper.
Abstract
• Summary of your article and research
• 200-500 words
Introduction
• Introductory discussion of the COVID-19 epidemic – what is it, when did it happen, etc.
• Introductory discussion of using models to understand disease outbreaks and epidemics
• Reference citations are expected to support your introduction
• The objectives and/or hypotheses of your experiment with the model
Methods
• Brief explanation of where the model came from and how it works
• Explain your experiment:
 What parameters did you modify?
 Why did you modify those parameters?
 What were the levels of your parameter?
 What was your control level?
 What did you expect?
 Etc.
Results
• Visuals (such as graphs or tables)
• Text in the results that explains the basic information and outcomes portrayed in your visuals
• Visuals should have proper descriptions, axis labels, and legends
• Visuals should show the control data for comparison
• Statistical analysis of your data will be ideal – extra credit will be given for attempts with additional credit if the statistics are well done and informative
 Examples of good statistical analyses would include t-tests, chi-square tests, regression analysis or analysis of variance (ANOVA)
• Examples:
 A graph of the control data, then a graph of each modification
 A graph of both the control and experimental data
 A table that shows the effects of different levels of a parameter on outcomes
Discussion
• Deeper discussion about how the changes you made would translate to our society
• Reference citations are expected to support your discussion
• Would your model have led to earlier or later shutdown events?
• If you were the epidemiologist in charge, what recommendations would you have made based on your model predictions?
• Based on your research, are the current restrictions going to be effective?
• Reflect on your overall experience with this COVID-19 outbreak
 The effects it has made on your life – home, school, graduation, etc.
 The emotions and concerns of your family
 How understanding epidemic modeling can help you to understand and relate to the changes in societal lifestyles, such as social distancing, bars and restaurant restrictions, events cancelled, etc.
 The overall outcomes and experience within this course – what did you learn, what could you have done differently, what could your professor have done differently, etc.
References
• As discussed in the template, you should use primary references, such as journal articles
• Should have a minimum of five (5) references
• Use the APA format for references and citations
• You can use one (1) reference to a COVID-19 census data website, such as Worldometers (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) or John Hopkins (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)
• You may use the original article was discussed in class as a reference. The proper reference is https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/

Paper Template

Short, descriptive title

Your name

Abstract
Introduction (scope and purpose of your experiment)
Short description of methods
Results
Your conclusions

Introduction
Background information:
Make a general statement likely to interest the reader in your topic
Do not reference information that is common knowledge (i.e., familiar to your audience)
Review current literature (primary journal articles) on the topic
Paraphrase information from the literature and cite the source; do not use direct quotations
Use proper citation format (Name–Year or Citation–Sequence format)
Final paragraph should contain the objectives of your experiment

Materials and Methods
Write in full sentences and paragraphs; do not use a numbered list
Use past tense
Provide enough detail to enable the reader to repeat the experiment
Do not list materials separately
Do not refer to the containers
Do not explain routine procedures (e.g., do not explain how to use a micropipettor)
Do not say that you will graph and interpret the data

Results
Body (text) in which you describe the data in each visual:
Describe the trend, rather than listing the actual numbers
Refer to each table and figure by number in parentheses at the end of the first sentence in which you describe that visual
Do not give possible explanations for the results

Visuals (tables and graphs):
Do not include raw data; instead reduce and summarize the data
Do not include both a table and a figure for the same data.
Position the visual immediately after the paragraph in which you first describe it
Give each figure and table a caption that consists of a number and a short, descriptive title. The title should enable the reader to understand the visual without having to refer to the body of the Results section.
 Figure captions go below the figure
 Table captions go above the table

Discussion
Briefly restate the results
Provide possible explanations for the results
Present evidence for your conclusions
Show how your results relate to findings published in the primary literature (journal articles)
Provide enough detail from the source to show how it is relevant to your experiment
Point out any inconsistencies in your data
Discuss possible sources of error
Describe possible future work on this topic (if appropriate)

References
References consist mostly of journal articles, not textbooks or Internet sources
Include only sources that you have cited in the body of your lab report
Make sure all cited sources are listed in the References section
Use proper reference format (Name–Year or Citation–Sequence format)